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Greenhouse gas
World needs to axe greenhouse gases by 80 pct: report
By Alister Doyle, Environment Correspondent 50 minutes ago
OSLO (Reuters) - The world will have to axe greenhouse gas emissions by
80 percent by 2050, more deeply than planned, to have an even chance of
curbing global warming in line with
European Union goals, researchers said on Thursday.
Even tough long-term curbs foreseen by the EU or California fall short
of reductions needed to avert a 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit)
temperature rise over pre-industrial times, seen by the EU as a
threshold for "dangerous change," they said.
"If we are to have a 50 percent chance of meeting a 2 Celsius target we
would have to cut global emissions by 80 percent by 2050," Nathan Rive
of the Center for International Climate and Environmental Research in
Oslo told Reuters.
"Any delay in implementing emissions reductions will make a 2 degree
target practically unreachable," he and colleague Steffen Kallbekken
wrote of findings to be published in the journal Climatic Change.
The EU reckons that there would be dangerous disruptions to the climate
such as ever more droughts, heatwaves, floods and rising seas beyond a 2
C ceiling. Temperatures already rose by about 0.7 Celsius in the 20th
century.
An 80 percent global cut would mean rich nations, responsible for most
heat-trapping emissions from fossil fuels burnt by power plants,
factories and cars, would have to axe emissions by about 95 percent
below 2000 levels by 2050.
Developing countries such as China, India, Brazil and Indonesia, where
emissions are rising sharply in line with energy use to help lift
millions from poverty, would have to take on less swinging reductions,
they said.
CALIFORNIA
"Even the most ambitious proposals for emissions cuts in 2050, such as
the UK draft climate bill which sets a cut of 60 percent, or the
California target to reduce emissions by 80 percent by 2050, fall
short," they said.
A draft report by the U.N. climate panel due for release on May 4 in
Bangkok also concludes that a maximum 2 C rise would be hard to achieve.
Restraints on emissions consistent with the goal could cost up to 3
percent of world gross domestic product.
And Kalbekken and Rive said that global emissions would have to peak in
2025, with cuts in place by 2010, to achieve an 80 percent cut by
mid-century. Any delays would sharply raise costs.
Under the U.N.'s Kyoto Protocol, 35 industrialized nations now have
goals of cutting emissions by 5 percent below 1990 by 2008-12. The
United States, which says the plan is too costly and wrongly excludes
developing states, is the main outsider.
U.N. climate negotiations focused on widening Kyoto beyond 2012 are
stalled. Developing nations say they cannot be expected to cap emissions
when energy use has been a key to economic growth by rich states since
the Industrial Revolution.
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